Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning

Anticipating Surprise, originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts during the cold war, has been declassified and condensed, in order to provide wider audiences with an inside look at intelligence gathering and analysis. Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on America, intelligence collection and analysis has been hotly debated. Cynthia Grabo suggests ways of improving warning assessments which better convey warnings to policymakers and military commanders - who are responsible for taking appropriate action to avert disaster.